Where Multifamily Stands at Mid-2026: Joe Fairless on Cincinnati and the Sun Belt

Joe walks through where the multifamily market stands at the halfway point of 2026 and why the Midwest is weathering this cycle differently than the Sun Belt.

What the episode covers

• Floating-rate pain: how deals bought at the 2021 peak with floating-rate debt ran into rate cap renewals that repriced dramatically as interest rates climbed.
• Sun Belt supply and demand: the imbalance driving flat to negative rent growth in the Sun Belt, and why Joe expects it to flip positive starting this year or next.
• Why Cincinnati and the Midwest are handling the cycle better: cap rates were already close to where interest rates landed, so the math never broke the way it did in lower cap rate markets.
• The Class A, B, and C divide: institutions chasing Class A deals that "always trade," a bottomed-out Class B, and almost no buyer market for Class C, which Joe says is the opportunity for operators willing to out-manage the previous owner.
• Operating upside without capital improvements: a C-class portfolio can improve its revenue substantially by fixing things and treating tenants well.
• Loan maturity: how maturity, not just falling values, is forcing operators into capital calls or handing properties back to lenders.
• Syndication stigma: the heightened stigma around syndications compared to 2018 to 2020, and why capital raises now take more conversations to hit the same number.

Listen

Stream Episode 20 on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. For the national macro picture behind the conversation, read Higher for Longer.